Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2018 (AMJ)
Issued: 28 Mar 2018
For AMJ 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near- to above-average temperatures for most of the ASEAN region with the warmest region over Peninsular Malaysia (Figure 1). NCEP CFSv2 model skill for Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) for AMJ is high over much of Southeast Asia, except for the eastern Maritime continent and also the remote northern parts of Myanmar.
The AMJ 2018 temperature outlook for NCEP’s model is similar to the model from UK Met Office. However, other models from the JMA and ECMWF indicate near-average temperature conditions for most parts of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for AMJ 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s AMJ (Apr-May-Jun) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s AMJ (Apr-May-Jun) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.