Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2018 (MAM)
Issued: 28 Feb 2018
For MAM 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near normal to slightly above normal temperatures for most parts of Southeast Asia. The relatively warmer conditions are expected to be confined to the eastern edges of the Maritime Continent (Figure 1). NCEP CFSv2 model skill for Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) for MAM is high over much of Southeast Asia.
The MAM 2018 temperature outlook for NCEP’s model is generally similar to the models from ECMWF, JMA and UK Met Office, except for the Greater Mekong Subregion where JMA and ECMWF are going for higher likelihood of cooler conditions.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for MAM 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MAM (Mar-Apr-May) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s MAM (Mar-Apr-May) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.