Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2018 (FMA)
Issued: 30 Jan 2018
For FMA 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near normal to slightly above normal temperature for most of Southeast Asia, apart from above average temperature for the far eastern regions and below normal temperature for southern Laos, southern Vietnam, and Cambodia (Figure 1). NCEP CFSv2 model skill for Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) for FMA is high over much Southeast Asia.
The FMA 2018 temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is generally similar to the models from ECMWF, JMA and UK Met Office, except for a larger area of below normal temperature that encompasses Peninsular Malaysia (ECWMF and JMA), as well as Sumatra and Borneo (only ECWMF). Conversely, the UK Met Office model indicates a higher probability of above normal temperature for the whole of Indonesia.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s FMA (Feb-Mar-Apr) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s FMA (Feb-Mar-Apr) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.