Temperature

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2018 (JFM)

Issued: 29 Dec 2017

For JFM 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts above average temperature for the far northern and eastern parts of Southeast Asia region and near normal to slightly above normal conditions elsewhere (Figure 1). NCEP CFSv2 model skill for Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) for JFM is high over much Southeast Asia except for northern parts of the region where the skill is moderately lower.

The JFM 2018 temperature outlook for NCEP CFSv2 is generally similar to the models from ECMWF and JMA, except for regions over Mainland Southeast Asia (including Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos) where JMA model shows a considerable area of below normal temperature. As for UK Met Office model, it indicates a higher probability of above normal temperature for the whole of Indonesia.

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Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for JFM 2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s JFM (Jan-Feb-Mar) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s JFM (Jan-Feb-Mar) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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