Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2017 - February 2018 (DJF)
Issued: 28 Nov 2017
For DJF 2017-2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts above average temperatures for the far northern and eastern parts of Southeast Asia region, and near normal to slightly above normal elsewhere (Figure 1). This pattern is comparable to other models (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA). For Southern Vietnam though, the cooler temperature conditions are not predicted by CFSv2 like the other models. NCEP CFSv2 model skill for Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3) for DJF is high over much Southeast Asia except the northern parts of the region.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for DJF 2017-2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.