Temperature

Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2017 - January 2018 (NDJ)

Issued: 30 Oct 2017
For NDJ 2017-2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts above normal temperatures for the northern ASEAN region, and near normal to slightly above normal elsewhere (Figure 1). This pattern is comparable to other models (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA). NCEP CFSv2 model skill for NDJ is high south of 20°N for both Aphrodite (Figure 2) and ERA-Interim (Figure 3).
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Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for NDJ 2017-2018.
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Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s NDJ (Nov-Dec-Jan) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
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Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s NDJ (Nov-Dec-Jan) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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