Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: June-August 2018 (JJA)
Issued: 30 May 2018
For JJA 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 model predicts near- to above-average temperature for the Southeast Asia region, with the warmer locations predicted over the central areas of the region (Figure 1). Model skill for JJA is generally good against APHRODITE (Figure 2) and ERA Interim (Figure 3).
The JJA temperature outlook is broadly similar to the other models consulted (ECMWF, JMA, and UK Met Office), although the anomalies for the three models are closer to near-average conditions.
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly for JJA 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) temperature forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.