Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2018 (JAS)
Issued: 29 Jun 2018
For JAS 2018, the three models NCEP CFSv2 (Figure 1), ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) surveyed indicated near-average conditions for most of the Southeast Asia region and relatively warmer conditions over Borneo, the Indonesian provinces of Sulawesi and Papua.
Model skill for JAS is generally good against ERA Interim for the three models, except from northern parts of Borneo (Figures 4-6).
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly of NCEP model for JAS 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature anomaly of ECMWF model for JAS 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature anomaly of Met Office model for JAS 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 6: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s JAS Temperature forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.