Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2018 (ASO)
Issued: 30 Jul 2018
Above-average temperature most likely over the equatorial ASEAN region during ASO 2018. Elsewhere, near-average or slightly above-average temperatures are expected.
For ASO 2018, the NCEP CFSv2 (Figure 1), ECMWF (Figure 2), and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models predict above-average temperatures around the equator, with the warmest temperatures forecast over Borneo and eastern Sumatra. Elsewhere, all three models are predicting near-average or slightly above-average temperatures.
Model skill for ASO is generally good against APHRODITE (Figure 4) and ERA Interim (Figure 5).
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly of NCEP model for ASO 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature anomaly of ECMWF model for ASO 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature anomaly of Met Office model for ASO 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.