Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: September-November 2018 (SON)
Issued: 31 Aug 2018
For SON 2018, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.
All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – provide a consistent outlook for above-normal temperature conditions over many parts of the region with stronger signals over the equatorial region.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for SON 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.