Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2019 (MAM)
Issued: 28 Feb 2019
For MAM 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia.
For MAM 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office – predict above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the region except over the northwestern corner where the models predict a lower probability of above-normal conditions (Figures 1-3).
Across the region, the models’ skill scores for temperature prediction are generally very good for the MAM season except for the far eastern corner of the region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MAM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.