Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2019 (AMJ)
Issued: 29 Mar 2019
For AMJ 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia.
For AMJ 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) favour above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the region except over northern Myanmar and the eastern Maritime Continent where the three models predict no dominant tercile category.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill scores for temperature predictions are generally very good for the AMJ season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for AMJ 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.