Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2019 (FMA)
Issued: 28 Jan 2019
For FMA 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia.
For FMA 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) favour above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the region with the highest likelihood over the equatorial region. The three models are also predicting a high probability of equatorial FMA temperatures to be in the top 20% percentile, way above-normal ranges (Figures 4-6).
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good for the FMA season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for FMA 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for FMA 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for FMA 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 6: Temperature Top 20% Percentile (Way above Normal) predictions of UK Met Office model for FMA 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.