Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: January-March 2019 (JFM)
Issued: 27 Dec 2018
For JFM 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.
For JFM 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) favour above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of the region with the highest likelihood over the equatorial region.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good for the JFM season.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for JFM 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information)
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.