Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: December 2018 - February 2019 (DJF)
Issued: 30 Nov 2018
For DJF 2018-2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia.
For the DJF 2018-2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) favour above-normal temperature conditions over most of the region with the highest likelihood over the western equatorial region.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2018-2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2018-2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for DJF 2018-2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general, and based on the latest run from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.