Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: November 2018 - January 2019 (NDJ)
Issued: 31 Oct 2018
For NDJ 2018-2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of Southeast Asia.
For the NDJ 2018-2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) favour above-normal temperature conditions over most the region with the highest likelihood over the equatorial region.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for NDJ 2018-2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for NDJ 2018-2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for NDJ 2018-2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.