Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2020 (JAS)
Issued: 29 Jun 2020
For JAS 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia except parts of Borneo where near-normal temperature is predicted.
For JAS 2020, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict high-likelihood of above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of Southeast Asia. However, near-normal temperature conditions are predicted over equatorial Southeast Asia, particularly over parts of Borneo by the ECMWF and UK Met Office models, coinciding with more rainfall predicted over these that regions.
The models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature for this season is moderate to high for much of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JAS 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JAS 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.