Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: August-October 2020 (ASO)
Issued: 30 Jul 2020
For ASO 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia except parts of Borneo and northern Lao PDR and Viet Nam where near-normal temperature is predicted.
For ASO 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict high-likelihood of above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of Southeast Asia. However, near-normal temperature is predicted over parts of Borneo and northern Lao PDR and Viet Nam by the ECMWF and UK Met Office models.
The models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature for this season is moderate to high for much of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for ASO 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for ASO 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.