Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2022
Issued: 30 Aug 2022
For September 2022, the models predict above-normal temperature over much of the ASEAN region.
For September 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), apart from over parts of the equatorial region where near-normal temperature is predicted. The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts the highest spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). THE NCEP model predicts near-normal temperature over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of Borneo and Papua, while the ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperature over much of the equatorial region. The UK Met Office model predicts near-normal temperature over Borneo and Papua.
The model skill is relatively good for above-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN regional, and low to moderate for near-normal temperature for the equatorial region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for September 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for September 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.