Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2022
Issued: 30 Sep 2022
For October 2022, below- to near-normal temperatures are favoured over parts of the equatorial region and southern Mainland Southeast Asia, with above-normal temperature favoured elsewhere.
For October 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), apart from over parts of the equatorial region and southern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted. The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts the highest spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2).
All three models predict near-normal temperature over southern Mainland Southeast Asia. While the NCEP and UK Met Office models predict near-normal temperature over parts of the central ASEAN equatorial region and Papua, the ECMWF model predicts below- to near-normal temperature over much of the equatorial region.
The model skill is low to moderate for near-normal and below-normal temperature, and relatively good for above normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for October 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for October 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.