Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2022
Issued: 31 Oct 2022
For November 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent. A mixed of below- to above-normal temperatures are predicted over the Mainland Southeast Asia.
For November 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), apart from over southern Maritime Continent where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted. The NCEP and UK Met Office models (Figures 1 and 3) predict larger spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The model skill is relatively good for below- and above-normal temperatures for much of the Maritime Continent, except for the southeastern region where skill is low to moderate. Model skill for near-normal temperature is low to moderate for the mentioned region.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models predict above-normal temperature over the northwestern region, while below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted elsewhere. The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures is moderate to good for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and low to moderate elsewhere in the region. For near-normal temperatures model skill is generally low over this region.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, all three models predict above-normal temperature over the northwestern region, while below- to near-normal temperatures are predicted elsewhere. The model skill for below- and above-normal temperatures is moderate to good for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and low to moderate elsewhere in the region. For near-normal temperatures model skill is generally low over this region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for November based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.