Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2022

Issued: 30 Nov 2022

For December 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent, Peninsular Malaysia, and Myanmar. Near-normal temperature is predicted over the rest of ASEAN region.

For December 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent, around the Malay Peninsula, and over Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent and Malay Peninsula is moderate to relatively high. However, model skill is low for Myanmar.

Elsewhere in the Southeast Asia, the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4) predicts an increased chance of near-normal temperature, with no dominant tercile for northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is moderate for much of the western half of the Maritime Continent, and low elsewhere.

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Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for December 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for December 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for December based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.