Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2023
Issued: 28 Dec 2022
For January 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent and Myanmar. Near-normal temperature is predicted over the rest of ASEAN region.
For January 2023, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern Maritime Continent, and Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models’ skill for above-normal temperature category for the Maritime Continent is moderate to good but low for Myanmar.
Elsewhere in the Southeast Asia, the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4) predicts an increased chance of near-normal temperature, with no dominant tercile for central Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is low to moderate for most of the Southeast Asia for near-normal tercile category.
Elsewhere in the Southeast Asia, the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4) predicts an increased chance of near-normal temperature, with no dominant tercile for central Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is low to moderate for most of the Southeast Asia for near-normal tercile category.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for January 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for January 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for January based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.