Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: August 2022
Issued: 31 Jul 2022
For August 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the exception over parts of Borneo where near-normal temperature is predicted. The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts the highest spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). THE NCEP model predicts near-normal temperature over eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of Borneo, while the ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperature over parts of the equatorial region, in particular over Sumatra and Borneo. The UK Met Office model predicts near-normal temperature mainly over western Borneo only.
The model skill is relatively good for above-normal temperature and moderate for near-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for August 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for August 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for August 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for August 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.