Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: July 2022
Issued: 30 Jun 2022
For July 2022, the models predict above-normal temperature over most of the ASEAN region.
For July 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4) with the exception over western Borneo where near-normal temperature is predicted. The NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict near-normal temperature over western Borneo, while the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts above-normal temperature. For the western Maritime Continent, the probability of above-normal temperature varies across models, with the UK Met Office model predicting the highest likelihood and followed by the NCEP and ECMWF models. For northern Mainland Southeast Asia, both the NCEP and UK Met Office models predict above-normal temperature, while ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperature.
The model skill is relatively good for above-normal temperature and moderate to good for near-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region.
The model skill is relatively good for above-normal temperature and moderate to good for near-normal temperature for most of the ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for July 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for July based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.