Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: June 2022
Issued: 31 May 2022
For June 2022, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent, while near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For June 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with highest likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent. For the western Maritime Continent, the probability of above-normal temperature varies across models with the UK Met Office model predicting the highest probability (Figure 3), followed by the NCEP (Figure 1) and ECMWF models (Figure 2). The model skill is moderate to good for above-normal temperature for most of the Maritime Continent.
Models predict near- to above-normal temperatures over much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 4). The NCEP model predicts near-normal temperature for much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1), the ECMWF model predicts above-normal temperature for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and near-normal temperature elsewhere (Figure 2), and the UK Met Office model predicts above-normal temperature for most of Mainland Southeast Asia, apart from Myanmar (Figure 3). The models’ skill is moderate to good for near-normal temperature and relatively good for above-normal temperature for most of Mainland Southeast Asia.
Models predict near- to above-normal temperatures over much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 4). The NCEP model predicts near-normal temperature for much of the Mainland Southeast Asia (Figure 1), the ECMWF model predicts above-normal temperature for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and near-normal temperature elsewhere (Figure 2), and the UK Met Office model predicts above-normal temperature for most of Mainland Southeast Asia, apart from Myanmar (Figure 3). The models’ skill is moderate to good for near-normal temperature and relatively good for above-normal temperature for most of Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for June 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for June based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.