Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2022
Issued: 27 Apr 2022
For May 2022, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent, with below- to near-normal temperatures over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For May 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the highest likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts the highest probability of above-normal temperature for the mentioned regions, followed by the UK Met Office Model (Figure 3) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The models’ skill for the above-normal tercile category for the Maritime Continent is moderate to relatively good.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below- to near-normal temperatures for much of the region. The exception is over northern Myanmar where there is an increased chance of above-normal temperature. The model skill is low to moderate for below-normal temperature, and moderate for above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below- to near-normal temperatures for much of the region. The exception is over northern Myanmar where there is an increased chance of above-normal temperature. The model skill is low to moderate for below-normal temperature, and moderate for above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for May 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for May 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for May 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for May based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.