Temperature

For April 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the highest likelihood over the southeastern Maritime Continent. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts the highest probability of above-normal temperature for the mentioned regions, followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). The ECMWF model predicts a larger spatial extent of near-normal temperature conditions, in particular over northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, northeastern Borneo, and Java. The models’ skill for above-normal tercile category for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high with lower model skill for western Borneo and southern Sumatra.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below-normal temperature for much of the region, with the highest likelihood over northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia. The exception is over northern Myanmar where there is an increased chance of above-normal temperature. The model skill is low to relatively moderate for below-normal temperature, and moderate for above-normal temperature for these regions.