Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: March 2022
Issued: 28 Feb 2022
For March 2022, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent.
For March 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from for the Malay Peninsula and the Philippines, where a mix of below- to above-normal temperature is predicted. The NCEP model is the most confidence of the above-normal temperature, followed by the UK Met Office model and then the ECMWF model. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperature is over the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is generally disagreement among the three models, apart from over northern Lao PDR where all three models predict below-normal temperatures.
Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is moderate to relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for parts of the equatorial region where the skill is low to moderate. Model skill for predicting below-normal temperature is low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for March 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for March 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for March 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for March 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.