Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: February 2022
Issued: 31 Jan 2022
For February 2022, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent.
For February 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent, apart from for the Malay Peninsula and the Philippines, where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperature is over the southeastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models.
Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is moderate to relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for central Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the equatorial region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.