Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2022
Issued: 30 Dec 2021
For January 2022, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar.
For January 2022, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is over the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), above-normal temperature is predicted over Myanmar and near-normal temperature is predicted over southeast tip of Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models (Figures 1-3).
The models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is moderate to relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for the northern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2022.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.