Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2021
Issued: 30 Nov 2021
For December 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent.
For December 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, except over Java where near-normal temperature is predicted. The highest likelihood for above-normal temperatures is over the eastern Maritime Continent (Figure 4).
For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), above-normal temperature is predicted over Myanmar and below- to near-normal temperature is predicted over northeast Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, there is ether no dominant tercile or disagreement between the three models (Figures 1-3).
The models’ skill for predicting below- and above-normal temperature is moderate to relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for the northern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.