Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2021
Issued: 29 Oct 2021
For November 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar.
For November 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, except over southern Sumatra, Java, southern Borneo where near-normal temperature is predicted. For Mainland Southeast Asian, above-normal temperature is predicted over Myanmar, with no dominant tercile elsewhere.
The models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for the northernmost and southernmost parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for November based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.