Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2021
Issued: 30 Sep 2021
For October 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of Southeast Asia, except for some parts of the equatorial region and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted.
For October 2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of Southeast Asia, except over southern Sumatra, Java, southern Borneo and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted. The spatial extent of the regions for below- to near-normal temperature varies between the models.
The models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature are relatively high across Southeast Asia, except for southern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.