Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2021
Issued: 31 Aug 2021
For September 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of Southeast Asia.
For September 2021, there is an increased chance of above-normal temperature predicted over much of Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), except for southern Sumatra and southern Borneo with near-normal temperatures predicted. The UK Met Office (Figure 3) model predicts the highest spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2). The NCEP model predicts a lower chance of above-normal temperature conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, while the ECMWF model predicts near-normal temperatures over parts of the equatorial region, in particular over southern Sumatra, and Borneo.
The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is low to moderate for the three models, and for Mainland Southeast Asia is moderate to relatively high for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models and low for NCEP.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.