Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: August 2021
Issued: 30 Jul 2021
For August 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region.
For August 2021, there is an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The UK Met Office (Figure 3) model predicts the highest spatial coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). THE NCEP model predicts a lower chance of above-normal temperature conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia, while the ECMWF model predicts a lower chance over parts of the equatorial region, in particular over southern Sumatra, and Borneo.
The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to relatively high and low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for August 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for August 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.