Temperature

For July 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region by the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the highest likelihood over western and southern parts of the Maritime Continent. The UK Met Office (Figure 3) model predicts the highest spital coverage of above-normal temperature, followed by the NCEP model (Figure 1) and then the ECMWF model (Figure 2). THE NCEP model predicts lower confidence of above-normal temperature conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia with some occurrences of near-normal temperature conditions, while the ECMWF model predicts a larger spatial extent of near-normal temperature conditions or no dominant terciles over parts of the equatorial region, in particular over central Sumatra, Borneo and northern parts of Sulawesi and Papua.

The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to relatively high and low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.