Temperature

For June 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent by the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the highest likelihood in the eastern Maritime Continent (apart from the Philippines). The likelihood for the above-normal temperature varies among the three models, with the NCEP model (Figure 1) being the most confident (except for central Philippines), followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3), while the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts near-normal temperature for the western coast of Sumatra and much of the Philippines. The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is disagreement between the models for much of the region. For the region between 10ºN and 20ºN, the NCEP model generally predicts below- to near-normal temperature, the UK Met Office model predicts near-normal temperature, and ECMWF predicts near- to above-normal temperature. For the northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, NCEP model predicts above-normal temperature, while no dominant tercile is predicted for much of the region by the ECMWF and UK Met Office models. The models’ skill for Mainland Southeast Asia is low to moderate for June.