Temperature

For May 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest likelihood in the eastern Maritime Continent (apart from the northern part of the Philippines) by the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The likelihood for the above-normal temperature varies among the three models, with the NCEP model (Figure 1) being the most confident, followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3), while the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts near- to above-normal temperature for Sumatra, Malaysia and the Philippines. Models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high.

For Mainland Southeast Asia apart from Myanmar, temperature is predicted overall to be near-normal (Figure 4). Looking at the individual models, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts slightly cooler temperature of between below- and near-normal, while the NCEP (Figure 1) and ECMWF (Figure 2) models predict temperature more likely to be near-normal. Over Myanmar, there is disagreement between the models. For below- and near-normal temperatures, the models’ skill for this region is low to moderate for this month.