Temperature

For April 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over central and northern Myanmar and much of the Maritime Continent (apart from the northern parts of the Philippines, the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra), as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The area with the highest likelihood for the above-normal temperature varies among the three models, with the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicting so over the entire mentioned region, and both the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) models favouring eastern Maritime Continent. Models’ skill for above-normal tercile category for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high with lower model skill for western Borneo and southern Sumatra, while the model skill is relatively moderate for Myanmar.

For the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, there is mostly disagreement between the models. The ECMWF (Figure 2) model predicts below- and near-normal temperatures for much of this region, while the UK Met Office (Figure 3) model predicts temperature to more likely be below-normal. On the other hand, the NCEP (Figure 1) model predicting above-normal temperature for these regions. This integrates to below- to near-normal temperature in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models’ skill for this region is low to moderate for this month.