Temperature

For March 2021, an increased chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent (apart from the Malay Peninsula) and also Myanmar, as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The area with the highest likelihood for the above-normal temperature varies among the three models, with the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicting so over the entire mentioned region, the ECMWF model (Figure 2) favouring region around the Philippines, and the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) favouring southeast Maritime Continent. Models’ skill for above-normal tercile for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high with lower model skill for the Philippines and Sumatra regions, while model skill is low to moderate for Myanmar.

For the Malay Peninsula, near- to above-normal temperature is predicted, with the NCEP model going for above-normal, the UK Met Office model for near-normal and ECMWF model predicting a mix between the two. Model skill is low to moderate for the region mentioned.

For Mainland Southeast Asia apart from Myanmar, there is disagreement between the models. The NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts increased chance of above-normal temperature, the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predicts below-normal temperature, and ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts no dominant tercile for the region. Model skill is low to moderate for much of the Mainland Southeast Asia.