Temperature

For February 2021, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the eastern half of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). Based on the individual models (Figures 1–3), the highest likelihood is over the Philippines and eastern parts of Indonesia. For Borneo, the ECMWF (Figure 2) and UKMO (Figure 3) models predict a smaller likelihood compared to the NCEP model (Figure 1). The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent and Myanmar is moderate to high.

For the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below-normal temperature for parts of Viet Nam, Lao PDR and north-eastern Thailand, although with less chance than in the previous month. The model skill is moderate for below-normal temperature for these regions.

For the western half of the Maritime Continent, there is disagreement between the models. The ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts near-normal temperature for much of this region, while the UKMO model (Figure 3) predicts temperature to more likely be above-normal. The NCEP model (Figure 1) is between these two models, predicting near-normal temperature for the region around Java, and above-normal elsewhere. Model skill is low to moderate for much of the western half of the Maritime Continent, apart from the region around Java where it is moderate to relatively high.