Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: January 2021
Issued: 24 Dec 2020
For January 2021, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar, with below- to near-normal temperatures over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For January 2021, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar as seen in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with the highest likelihood over the most eastern and western parts of the region. The NCEP (Figure 1) model predicts the highest probability of above-normal temperature for these regions, follows by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3). The ECMWF (Figure 2) model predicts a larger spatial extent of near-normal temperature conditions, in particular over southern Sumatra and Java. The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent and Myanmar is moderate to high.
For the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below-normal temperature for parts of northern Viet Nam, Lao PDR and north-eastern Thailand. The model skill is relatively moderate for below-normal temperature for these regions.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for January 2021.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for January 2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.