Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: December 2020
Issued: 28 Nov 2020
For December 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of Maritime Continent with below- to near-normal over much of Mainland Southeast Asia.
For December 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent, except over Java where there is no dominant tercile predicted by ECMWF (Figure 3) and UK Met Office predicts an increase chance of near-normal temperature (Figure 2). The models’ skill for above-normal temperature for the Maritime Continent is moderate to high.
For central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, near- to below-normal temperature is predicted by ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figure 2 and 3), while NCEP (Figure 1) shows near- to above-normal temperature. This integrates to near- to below-normal temperature in the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The models’ skill for this region is moderate to low.
Elsewhere in Mainland Southeast Asia, model skill is low.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for December 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for December 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.