Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: November 2020
Issued: 26 Oct 2020
For November 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of the Maritime Continent, while below-normal temperature is favoured over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For November 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest likelihood over the most eastern and western parts of the region. The skill is relatively good, apart from over some parts near the equator and in the southernmost part of the Maritime Continent, where the skill is low to moderate.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, the models predict an increased chance of below-normal temperature for parts of Viet Nam, Lao PDR, and northeastern Thailand. The model skill is moderate to relatively good for below-normal temperature for this region. Elsewhere in Mainland Southeast Asia, the skill is low for this time of year.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.