Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2020
Issued: 28 Sep 2020
For October 2020, above-normal temperature is favoured over much of Southeast Asia except for some parts of the equatorial region and the northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted.
For October 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal temperature over much of Southeast Asia, except over some parts near the equator and northeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where below- to near-normal temperature is predicted. The spatial extent of the regions where below- to near-normal temperature is more likely also varies between the models.
The models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature are relatively good across Southeast Asia, except for southern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
The models’ skill scores for predicting above-normal temperature are relatively good across Southeast Asia, except for southern parts of the region where the skill is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2020.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for October based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.