Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2019
Issued: 30 Aug 2019
For September 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most of the equatorial region. Elsewhere, temperatures are expected to be near-to-above normal for the northern ASEAN region, and below-to-near normal for the southern-most ASEAN region.
For September 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – consistently predict above-normal temperature conditions for most of the equatorial region (including Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, and Borneo). For southern parts of the Maritime Continent, in particular over the ocean, all three models predict below-to-near normal temperature conditions with different likelihoods.
For the northern ASEAN region, all three models predict near-to-above normal temperatures. However, there are some differences for the band around 10°N, where the NCEP (Figure 1) model is predicting near-normal temperature, compared to the ECMWF (Figure 2) model that is predicting near-to above normal, and the UKMO (Figure 3) model that is predicting above normal temperatures.
The models’ skill scores for predicting both above- and below-normal temperature terciles are generally good over most parts of Southeast Asia except for some parts of the region, for example, northern Borneo.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).