Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: October 2019
Issued: 30 Sep 2019
For October 2019, above-normal temperature is favoured over most parts of Southeast Asia north of the equator, except for the southern Maritime Continent where below- or near-normal temperature is predicted over the ocean and coastal regions.
For October 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – consistently predict above-normal temperature conditions over most parts of Southeast Asia north of the equator with stronger probabilities over regions between 0-10°N. For the southern parts of the Maritime Continent, in particular over the ocean and coastal regions, all three models predict below- or near-normal temperature conditions.
The models’ skill scores for predicting both above- and below-normal temperature terciles are generally good over equatorial parts of Southeast Asia except for the southern Maritime Continent.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for October 2019.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for October 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).