Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: September 2018
Issued: 31 Aug 2018
For September 2018, above-normal temperature is favoured over many parts of Southeast Asia.
All three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – provide consistent outlook for above-normal temperature conditions over most of the equatorial region. Two of the models, NCEP CFSv2 and UK Met Office, also predict possibility of above-normal conditions over parts of northern Southeast Asia (mainly Myanmar and northern Thailand). There is no dominant category for the ECMWF model for this region.
Over land across the region, the models’ skill for temperature prediction are generally very good.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for September 2018.
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for September 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for September 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.