Temperature

Monthly Temperature Outlook: August 2018

Issued: 30 Jul 2018

A mix of below and above-average temperatures for the Maritime Continent during August, with no consistent forecast for Mainland Southeast Asia.

For the Maritime Continent in August 2018, below-average temperatures are expected in the most southern part of the region (Java, Timor Sea), with above-average temperatures expected over the equatorial region (including Borneo and Sumatra). This pattern is consistent in all three models (NCEP CFSv2 Figure 1; ECMWF Figure 2; UK Met Office Figure 3). Model skill is generally good against both Aphrodite (NCEP Figure 4) and ERA Interim (NCEP Figure 5).

For Mainland Southeast Asia, however; the models are less consistent. The NCEP CFSv2 model indicates below-average temperatures for most of this region, while the UK Met Office indicates slightly above-average temperatures, and the ECWMF model indicates near-average temperatures.

ncep_temp_t2m_ANOM_1 
Figure 1: Temperature anomaly of NCEP model for August 2018.
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Figure 2: Temperature anomaly of ECMWF model for August 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Temperature anomaly of Met Office model for August 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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